Unfortunately, I do not expect any breakthrough. I am afraid that the climate summit, led by the CEO of a large oil company, will not bring the results that many people are hoping for. The most desirable outcome of this year's summit would be an agreement to end the use of fossil fuels by 2050 at the latest. Perhaps such a document will be signed, but it will contain restrictions that will render it ineffective.
It is possible that it will mention ending the use of „unabated fossil fuels.” The key word here is „unabated,” which would leave room for new fossil fuel extraction and use projects if they were accompanied by the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. CCS is a mantra that has been repeated for years by companies in the fuel industry, but it has no basis in reality. The effectiveness of this type of technology on a mass scale has not been demonstrated., so it cannot be the basis for the development of the industry.
COP28 will see the completion of the first global stocktake of the targets adopted by individual countries under the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. All indications are that the level of ambition of these targets is too low to achieve the goals of the Agreement—we are heading not toward limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C, but toward more than 3°C.
COP28 would be a success if it concluded work on the implementation of the Loss and Damage Fund, a fund under which countries of the global north provide adequate resources to less developed countries to help them adapt to the effects of the climate crisis. The decision to establish the fund has already been made, but operational details and binding pledges are still lacking.
Of course, COP conferences are essential. It is good that they attract the attention of people who are involved in sustainable development. We should all follow the reports from COP28. But I fear that this year, too, world leaders will behave as they do in the movie. Don't look up. At the same time, I would like to write in mid-December, after the climate summit is over, how wrong I was today.
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